Why Election Night Results May Shift—and Why It Matters

Election night brings a lot of excitement, but it can also be confusing when early results favor one candidate, only to shift later in the night or over the next few days. These shifts are often due to two common patterns known as the “Red Mirage” and the “Blue Shift”. These patterns aren’t tricks or conspiracies; they simply reflect when and how different groups of people cast their votes. By understanding these patterns, we can make sense of election results, avoid jumping to conclusions, and stay patient through the counting process.

The “Red Mirage”: Why Republicans Often Lead Early

You may have noticed that on election night, Republicans sometimes have an early lead. This early advantage, called the “Red Mirage”, happens because many Republican voters prefer voting in person, either early or on Election Day. In-person votes get counted first, and precincts in rural areas—where Republican support is often stronger—usually have fewer ballots to count. This allows these areas to report results more quickly, creating an early impression that Republicans are winning.

Think of it like hearing only half of a story and assuming you know the ending. The “Red Mirage” is just that: an early picture that doesn’t yet include all the details.

The “Red Mirage” is just that: an early picture that doesn’t yet include all the details.

The “Blue Shift”: Why Democratic Votes Often Increase as Counting Continues

Later in the night, you might see shifts in the vote count as more results come in, often favoring Democrats. This change, called the “Blue Shift, occurs because many Democratic voters cast their ballots by mail or vote early. Counting these mail-in votes, especially in large cities, can take longer, which means Democratic numbers tend to increase as these ballots are added to the total.

It’s like waiting for a meal to finish cooking; if someone judged it halfway through, they’d miss the final result. The “Blue Shift” is just the outcome of different voting choices and the time it takes to count every single vote.

Why Understanding These Patterns Matters

So, why is it important to understand these patterns? First, they remind us that an early lead on election night doesn’t tell the whole story. Sometimes, people see the Red Mirage and assume the later votes for the other party must mean something shady is happening. But elections are like stories—you need to see the full picture to truly understand the results.

Imagine working on a puzzle but stopping halfway because the picture isn’t complete. That’s why every vote needs to be counted. Recognizing these patterns helps us avoid jumping to conclusions based on incomplete information.

Real-Life Example: Broward and Baker Counties

As of October 9, 2024 here are the registered voting demographics by every Florida County.

A helpful way to think about the “Red Mirage” and “Blue Shift” is by comparing two counties in Florida: Lafayette County and Broward County. Lafayette County is a smaller, rural area (75.82% Republican/15.67% Democrat) with strong Republican support, where most people vote in person. Because it has fewer votes to count, Lafayette County often reports results earlier, giving an initial boost to Republican totals across the state.

On the other hand, Broward County is a large, urban area (23.23% Republican/45.07% Democrat) with over a million registered voters, many of whom vote by mail. The sheer volume of votes in Broward means counting takes longer, with results coming in later in the evening. As more of Broward’s totals are added, you might see Democratic numbers catching up or even overtaking the Republican lead from places like Lafayette County.

Here’s an example for Florida fishing enthusiasts…

Just as we see voting patterns for Democrats and Republicans repeat each election, we also see patterns in nature that locals know well. Consider Florida fishermen and the tarpon, a popular fish that migrates to the same coastal spots every spring and summer. These migration patterns are so reliable that fishermen plan their trips around them each season.

Now, imagine telling these fishermen that tarpon—a fish they’ve counted on every season—suddenly started showing up in winter or in completely different waters. They’d find that surprising or even suspicious because tarpon follow predictable patterns. Voting trends are much the same; just as fishermen know the rhythms of tarpon, political analysts and voters recognize each party’s voting patterns based on well-established trends.

Think about times in your life when something seemed one way but turned out differently once you had the whole story. Election night is often like that. We only get the full picture once all the votes are in.

Don’t Forget about Mail-in and Absentee Ballots

One reason we sometimes see shifts in election results is because of when certain types of votes—like mail-in and absentee ballots—are allowed to be counted. In many states, these ballots can’t be tallied until Election Day or even after polls close. This means that while thousands of votes may already be received, they can’t be added to the results until later in the night or even over the next few days. When these ballots are finally counted, they can change the results and add more detail to the outcome.

Imagine a line of people waiting to speak at an event, but only some of them are allowed to speak right away while others have to wait until later. Even though we don’t hear from everyone immediately, each person’s voice is important. Mail-in and absentee ballots work similarly—they represent the will of voters and deserve to be counted, even if it’s later in the night.

This process is guided by state laws, which vary widely. In Wisconsin, for example, counting mail-in ballots doesn’t begin until the polls open on Election Day. Arizona only processes ballots left in drop boxes on Election Day after polls close. Meanwhile, Michigan recently updated its rules to allow counties to begin processing ballots up to eight days before Election Day. With each state setting its own rules, election night results often reflect a mix of in-person votes counted first and mail-in ballots counted later.

Perhaps we want to establish laws that are consistent with each other across 50 states. Food for thought – something we can and should explore and discuss as voters and lawmakers.

Florida’s Evolution into and Vote Counting Leader

Florida provides an excellent example of how different states handle counting votes and what can be done to streamline the process. Florida has a history of election challenges, notably the infamous 2000 Presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, where recounts, ballot issues, and delays led to national scrutiny. Since then, Florida has overhauled its election processes to make counting more efficient and transparent.

These changes included stricter guidelines, better funding for modern machines, and professionalized training for election workers. Notably, Florida passed legislation that allows counties to start counting mail-in ballots up to 22 days before Election Day! This early processing helps ensure that ballots are ready to be included in the count as soon as the polls close.

Additionally, Florida law requires that early voting ballots be completely counted by the day before Election Day. These results must then be posted within 30 minutes of polls closing on Election Day. For mail-in ballots, Florida mandates that they must be received by 7:00 p.m. on Election Day to be counted. These steps have made Florida a leader in efficient election processing, setting an example for other states.

If you live in a state where mail-in ballots aren’t counted until after polls close and think they should be counted sooner, you have the right to reach out to your state representatives and suggest changes. Florida’s example shows that with the right resources, planning, and legal structure, it’s possible to count mail-in and absentee ballots efficiently, providing more timely results while respecting every voter’s choice.

Understanding these differences can help us approach election results with patience. When we know the rules behind when votes are counted, it’s easier to appreciate the process and trust that every vote, no matter when it’s tallied, is part of the final outcome.

Why Being Informed Matters: Educating Ourselves and Our Communities

As a lifelong educator, I felt compelled to write this post to help those less familiar with the voting and counting process better understand it. My goal is to keep us calm and informed on election night by explaining how and when votes are counted—and why shifts in results can occur throughout the evening. Unfortunately, this process has been misrepresented by too many people, though I won’t speculate on reasons for that in this post.

Please feel free to share this post with friends, family, or even students. When we understand the concepts of the “Red Mirage” and “Blue Shift”, we actually strengthen our democracy and reduce confusion that can come from incomplete information. A strong civics curriculum, especially in K-12, is more important now than ever.

Breathe, Stop, and Think

This message is for everyone who believes that every legal vote should be counted to protect our democracy. If you don’t agree with that, this post isn’t for you. But if you do believe that every eligible American’s vote should count, consider reaching out to your elected officials to support fair, accurate, and transparent vote counting and that means being patient!

The “Red Mirage” and “Blue Shift” are natural patterns in how votes are counted, not tricks or conspiracies. If you’d like to see changes in the way votes are counted, talk to your representatives about updating our laws, but remember—any changes must always respect the rights of every legal voter.

In the 2020 election, former President Trump noticed he was ahead in some states early on, but as the vote counting continued, his lead shrank. This wasn’t “shady or suspicious”—it was simply the result of counting every vote.

In future elections, let’s remember that early results don’t tell the whole story. By waiting for the full picture, we help build a stronger, more informed democracy.

A Final Thought: Look Beyond the Headlines

If you’re interested in learning more about election patterns like the Red Mirage and Blue Shift, consider going beyond your usual sources of information. Look for reliable news outlets, research articles, or even reach out to local election officials to get answers. The more we know, the better we can understand the process and ensure that every legal vote is counted.